A challenging away fixture against AS Roma (1:1) nearly resulted in Athletic Club's first Europa League victory, as the Basque side outperformed the Romans in terms of chances. At home against AZ Alkmaar, the team is unlikely to encounter significant problems, having already adapted to playing without Oihan Sancet and Unai Simón.
In the second half of September, Athletic Club looked exceedingly confident, putting together a run of three consecutive victories. Despite losses to Barcelona (1:2) and Atlético Madrid (0:1), the team from Bilbao sit in the top five of La Liga. They have netted 12 goals in eight matches (only four teams have scored more) and rank in the top seven for xGA with 9.28. In Rome, they created 0.62 xG and outshot their top-tier opponents significantly (12-4).
Unlike their upcoming rivals, AZ celebrated their first Europa League win last week, though they were expected to defeat Elfsborg (3:2). The Swedish side managed to challenge the team from Alkmaar: they conceded twice from two shots on target, and dominating possession (64-36%) will be far more challenging in Bilbao. On Sunday, AZ Alkmaar faltered in the Eredivisie against Utrecht (1:2), with two goals conceded from three shots allowed.
In five home matches, Athletic Club have scored at least once in four of them. AZ Alkmaar's defence is too unstable, and the Basques are poised to exploit this vulnerability.
